A Periodic Look at the California Lottery

What are the odds of winning the California Lottery? I am talking about the winning of $1 million or more (the kind of winning that is a game changer in one’s personal life). How often are these million-dollar tickets won? Ten months ago I estimated that the odds of winning $1 million or more in the California Lottery were one in 36 million (see Taking another look at the California Lottery). The data were based on data from California Lottery that I obtained in November 2010 (see Shining a light on the California Lottery). Nothing happened in the last ten months indicates that the odds of winning has fundamentally changed.

Just to confirm, I count the number of winning million-dollar winning tickets as of today (August 30, 2011). This is done at the website of the California Lottery. The data are not readily available. I have to search at this site. I count the tickets by searching one county at a time (there are 58 counties in the state). The result: since the inception of the California Lottery in 1985, there are only 257 tickets that paid out $1 million or more (an increase of 10 winning tickets over 10 months ago). So in its 26-year history, there are only about 260 winning tickets, about 10 per year. The increase of 10 tickets in the last 10 months also confirms the average of 10 winning tickets per year.

With the increase of 10 more winning tickets, the odds are actually a little higher, about one in 36.7 million, but still not fundamentally different from 1 in 36 million.

The mantra of many lotto players is that you have to buy a ticket in order to win. That is so true. You have to get in the game to have a chance to win, even though the chance of winning is infinitesimally small. On average it takes the purchase of about 36 million tickets to support one winning ticket. Still dreaming of winning big?